Jul 19

EUR/USD close to bottom?

Posted in Market Timing

Deflating debt across the world is providing support for US dollars across the world. OPEC sells OIL in US dollars. For decades people, countries and companies borrowed dollars and promised to pay back with interest. The time to pay it back has arrives and borrowers must find dollars. But how high can the dollar go? Will QE3 provide head winds? What is the long term picture for the next few years?

On July 6, the EUR/USD fell to a new 2-year low.

The reason for the drop?

From a fundamental standpoint: nothing.

  • There were no new devastating reports out of Europe to explain the euro’s weakness.
  • Nor good economic news from the U.S. to explain the dollar’s strength.
  • Nothing other than the “eurozone worries “…which, frankly, have been with us for what, two-plus years now?

In other words, market fundamentals failed to give FX traders a tell-tale signal that a drop to a new low was imminent.

At least one technical analyst did see the drop coming in his charts and alerted his readers to the move with enough time to act.

Update For: Wednesday/Thursday, July 4/5
Posted On: Tue, 03 Jul 2012 14:57:51 GMT
EURUSD Last Price: 1.2605

[Topping] The impulsive but incomplete decline from near 1.3500 and the corrective recovery during the first three weeks of June dictate a bearish outlook. From below 1.2744, and ideally below 1.2693, the euro should resume its decline.

(Excerpted from Jim Martens’ Currency Specialty Service, provided by Elliott Wave International.)

EWI Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens is one of the most sought-after FX strategists and trading instructors in the world. His technical, Elliott wave approach to the FX markets has been featured in numerous forex publications including ForexProsFX StreetTrading Stocks and others. Jim has spoken at several trading events including The Traders Expo and Traders’ Library Trading Forum.

Take this opportunity to learn from one of the world’s top Forex strategists. Follow this link to reserve your seat for his free webinar now.


 

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Jul 14

Forecast S&P 500 Using Elliott Waves

Here’s what Elliott wave analysis is all about: You study charts to find
non-overlapping 5-wave moves (trend-defining) from overlapping 3-wave ones
(corrective, countertrend).

With that in mind, please take a look at this chart of the S&P 500, which
our U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service (FreeWeek
is on now
) posted for subscribers at 9:37 AM June 14:

Immediately, you can see that the S&P 500 has been moving sideways in a
choppy, overlapping manner. That’s the definition of a correction — i.e., that
is NOT the trend. The trend, as the U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty
Service
editor Tom Prindaville said in the morning market overview, was
higher — at least in the short-term:

…sideways-to-up over the very near term will be expected.
Simply put, overall higher near-term remains the intraday call
— to complete a corrective second wave.

And here’s a chart of the S&P 500 at the close of the market that the
Service posted at 3:34 PM on the same day:

To make this bullish forecast, the Service editor Tom Prindaville
was simply following the Elliott wave model of market progression. The model
called for a completion of the developing wave 2 — in this case, “higher
near-term.”

Market corrections — the sideways, choppy moves you see in both charts above
— are notoriously hard to forecast. And not every Elliott wave forecast works
out. But you do get a real, practical roadmap
of the expected market action.


WANT TO TRY ELLIOTT WAVE FORECASTS — FREE?
Try our U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service forecasts of the
S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ.
Get
the details and instant, FREE online access.

 

S&P
500: Did the 13.74-Point Rally Finish the Move?

From an
Elliott wave perspective, there was a good reason for the June 15 rally

There were few “fundamental” reasons to be bullish on U.S. stocks on Friday
morning (June 15).

If anything, the news that the U.S. unemployment rose in 18 states in May
sounded downright bearish. But stocks rallied anyway — for a seemingly unlikely
reason, explained the pundits: Because all the bad news lately makes it likely
that the Fed will step in again.

(Just as a side note, how many times did the Fed “step in” in
2007-2009 while the DJIA was dropping from over 14,000 to below 6,500? But hey,
that’s ancient history, and besides — “it’s different this time,”
right?)

From an Elliott wave perspective, there was another reason for the June 15
rally: the S&P 500 had some unfinished technical business on the upside.
Here’s what the editor Tom Prindaville wrote on Friday morning in EWI’s U.S.
Intraday Stocks Specialty Service
(try
it free now
):

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Jun 15 2012
9:30AM
ET / Jun 15 2012 1:30PM GMT
Last Price:
1331.33

Trade pushed beyond the 1319.74 level yesterday…[which] is significant
because it implies that, minimally, the S&P wants to take a closer, more
deliberate look at 1338, and the overall proportionally of the recent Elliott
wave action backs that up. For today, persistence atop 1319.74 is needed to see
the very near-term trend up with a minimum upside target of 1338.32.

The S&P 500 closed trading on June 15 at 1342.84, exceeding the bullish
price target U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service gave on Friday
morning by 4 points.


Find out where the S&P, NASDAQ and DJIA are likely headed next —
FREE

Try our U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service forecasts of the
S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ free for a week.
Get
the details and instant, FREE online access now >>
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Jul 14

Is Natural Gas the Next Big Trade?

Posted in Market Timing

Stock market is struggling. Gold is no longer the safe heaven. Oil is shaky. What is the next big thing? Natural gas rallied 40% in the last two months. Is the cleaner alternative to crude oil braced for another big move to the upside?

EWI’s Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy joins Yahoo! Finance Breakout host Jeff Macke to offer his take on what’s in store for the market that has plagued long-term investors since falling over 80% from its 2005 highs. Kennedy takes viewers through the technicals and offers his long- and short-term forecasts for the market.

Enjoy the interview that was originally recorded on June 19, 2012.


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Kennedy presents 6 different lessons that you can apply to your charts
immediately. Learn how to spot and act on trading opportunities in the markets
you follow.
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>>
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