Jul 14

Forecast S&P 500 Using Elliott Waves

Here’s what Elliott wave analysis is all about: You study charts to find
non-overlapping 5-wave moves (trend-defining) from overlapping 3-wave ones
(corrective, countertrend).

With that in mind, please take a look at this chart of the S&P 500, which
our U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service (FreeWeek
is on now
) posted for subscribers at 9:37 AM June 14:

Immediately, you can see that the S&P 500 has been moving sideways in a
choppy, overlapping manner. That’s the definition of a correction — i.e., that
is NOT the trend. The trend, as the U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty
Service
editor Tom Prindaville said in the morning market overview, was
higher — at least in the short-term:

…sideways-to-up over the very near term will be expected.
Simply put, overall higher near-term remains the intraday call
— to complete a corrective second wave.

And here’s a chart of the S&P 500 at the close of the market that the
Service posted at 3:34 PM on the same day:

To make this bullish forecast, the Service editor Tom Prindaville
was simply following the Elliott wave model of market progression. The model
called for a completion of the developing wave 2 — in this case, “higher
near-term.”

Market corrections — the sideways, choppy moves you see in both charts above
— are notoriously hard to forecast. And not every Elliott wave forecast works
out. But you do get a real, practical roadmap
of the expected market action.


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S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ.
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S&P
500: Did the 13.74-Point Rally Finish the Move?

From an
Elliott wave perspective, there was a good reason for the June 15 rally

There were few “fundamental” reasons to be bullish on U.S. stocks on Friday
morning (June 15).

If anything, the news that the U.S. unemployment rose in 18 states in May
sounded downright bearish. But stocks rallied anyway — for a seemingly unlikely
reason, explained the pundits: Because all the bad news lately makes it likely
that the Fed will step in again.

(Just as a side note, how many times did the Fed “step in” in
2007-2009 while the DJIA was dropping from over 14,000 to below 6,500? But hey,
that’s ancient history, and besides — “it’s different this time,”
right?)

From an Elliott wave perspective, there was another reason for the June 15
rally: the S&P 500 had some unfinished technical business on the upside.
Here’s what the editor Tom Prindaville wrote on Friday morning in EWI’s U.S.
Intraday Stocks Specialty Service
(try
it free now
):

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Jun 15 2012
9:30AM
ET / Jun 15 2012 1:30PM GMT
Last Price:
1331.33

Trade pushed beyond the 1319.74 level yesterday…[which] is significant
because it implies that, minimally, the S&P wants to take a closer, more
deliberate look at 1338, and the overall proportionally of the recent Elliott
wave action backs that up. For today, persistence atop 1319.74 is needed to see
the very near-term trend up with a minimum upside target of 1338.32.

The S&P 500 closed trading on June 15 at 1342.84, exceeding the bullish
price target U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service gave on Friday
morning by 4 points.


Find out where the S&P, NASDAQ and DJIA are likely headed next —
FREE

Try our U.S. Intraday Stocks Specialty Service forecasts of the
S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ free for a week.
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the details and instant, FREE online access now >>
comments: 1 »

One Response to “Forecast S&P 500 Using Elliott Waves”

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